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2023 Polls: Eko Hot Blog Analyses Candidates’ Strengths, Frailties
Since Nigeria transitioned back to democracy in 1999 after years of military dictatorship, presidential elections in the country have naturally been characterized by intense clashes between the political elite vying for the nation’s top job.
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However, this year’s election, for different reasons, is a unique one. It is unique because not only does the country stand on a steep precipice; but, for the first time, the race for the country’s highest office will not be a two-horse race. With the emergence of a “dark horse” in Peter Obi, the dramatics of the build-up to the election has become altogether more intriguing as Nigerians wait with bated breaths to know who will earn the mandate of rebuilding a nation on edge.
According to a report by Control Risks for Oxford Africa, in Nigeria, there is excitement around the entry of Peter Obi as a “third force” candidate ahead of the February 2023 presidential election, but the leading presidential candidates are veteran politicians from the two largest parties – Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – with little to differentiate them in terms of policy.
Indeed, there is no denying the fact that Obi, a former governor of Anambra State, has greatly stirred the polity and galvanised many Nigerians towards his own political philosophy of economic prudence; and, having held executive power for eight years, he isn’t particularly lacking in experience either.
However, winning a presidential election in Nigeria, and indeed any other part of the world, goes beyond popular opinion, emotions, or cheap sentiments. It requires a great deal of political capital, which is something that, for all of his social media circus, Obi lacks.
Just to underscore the crucial role political capital has played in determining the trajectory of presidential polls in Nigeria, it may be useful to revisit the 2015 election when Goodluck Jonathan, a seating president, faced off against Major Gen Muhammadu Buhari, a former military Head of State who, by this time, had amassed the support of key political figures in the country. Jonathan, a largely unpopular president whose ascension followed the tragic demise of his predecessor and former principal, fell short.
While speaking in a recent interview, the spokesman for the Peoples Democratic Party Presidential Campaign Council, Daniel Bwala tipped Obi’s presidential bid to suffer a hamstring because of his lack of political presence in Northern Nigeria.
He said, “It is true that Peter Obi is getting a lot of mention and is popular going into the elections. He is considered the third force because his influence is growing, especially in certain locations.
“But the truth is, Peter Obi as a person has not made a concerted and conscious effort to develop his political base in Northern Nigeria. He is playing catch-up at this late hour, and there are some steps he has taken that I do not believe will earn him many votes in the North.
“I recently said that Peter Obi will not get a single state in Northern Nigeria. It is not possible for you to win if you don’t get a single state in northern Nigeria because the north consists of three geopolitical zones. You cannot be the president of Nigeria without winning at least one or two zones in northern Nigeria. Peter Obi does not stand a chance.”
Indeed, having seen the lukewarmness of all of Obi’s campaigns in the northern region of the country, it is hard, even for a cynic, to disagree with Mr. Bwala.
Historically, elections in Nigeria have always been decided by numbers, and if experience has taught us anything, it is that population-wise, Northern Nigeria has traditionally churned out more votes during elections than any other region, and, with most of these states demonstrating allegiance to the ruling party, it’s hard to see the candidate of the APC, Bola Ahmed Tinubu not running away with this one.
One major factor, which will without doubt also work against the Peoples Democratic Party and the Labour Party is the split loyalty that now exists in the South, where both parties (PDP and LP) enjoy strong support. The inevitability here is that Obi and Atiku would end up splitting votes that could have been amassed by a single candidate.
By the time one factor in the grouse currently held by five PDP governors (G-5) against their own party, one would have to bear witness to a miracle of miracles before the main opposition party wins the race.
Consequently, with Asiwaju’s overwhelming support from the Northeast (by virtue of his running mate), as well as his home turf (Southwest), the stiff competition that would present itself in Northwestern states like Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara will ultimately play out in favour of the APC candidate because not only will the PDP and Labour Party struggle for votes in this geo-political zone, the influence wielded by the candidate of the NNPP, Rabiu Kwankwaso in this region would end up hurting the chances of the PDP and LP.
With the APC’s control of states in the North Central, such as Kogi, Kwara, and Niger States, it is less likely any of the candidates would garner many votes in this region, the implication being that the major opposition parties would have to slug it out in southern states such as Akwa Ibom, Delta, Cross River, and the likes.
According to a newly released poll conducted by the Freddan Continental Services, the APC flagbearer would coast home to unassailable victory in 19 states in the Saturday’s presidential election.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is projected to clinch nine states and the Federal Capital Territory, while the Labour Party (LP) is tipped to win in eight states. The New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) is not favored to win any state, even though it came second in Kano.
The poll, published on the firm’s website – https://freddancontinentalservices.com – said the APC candidate is favoured to win by 37 percent of respondents in the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. It said the poll was conducted between January 7 and February 11, 2023, using phone and online surveys.
Analysts have predicted that due to the three-pronged nature of this race, we may very well be on our way to a runoff to decide who would govern the country next.
However, the apparent reality remains that this three-horse race, as it is, effectively hands the APC a huge advantage in the polls; and, with the political sagacity and experience of Asiwaju, it’s hard to see him flunk this huge opportunity.
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On his part, the publisher of Eko Hot Blog, Otunba TJ Abass, who also tipped the APC candidate to get the better of his opponents, congratulated all three valiant aspirants for throwing their hats in the ring in the cause to write the next chapter of our nation’s muddled history.
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