Trump, Harris Battle Over Election’s ‘Biggest Issue’

1. Donald Trump has made his return to X this week, addressing his 89 million followers with a question reminiscent of Ronald Reagan’s 1980 campaign line.

After a nearly year-long hiatus, Trump probed: “Are you better off now than you were when I was president?” Reagan had famously asked, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Trump’s echo of this query suggests a deliberate strategy to focus on economic issues.

Economic concerns have been a focal point in recent polls, which consistently show that voters are primarily worried about inflation and job security.

A recent survey by The Economist and YouGov highlighted “inflation/prices” and “jobs and the economy” as top priorities for voters.

This widespread dissatisfaction with current economic conditions might seem like an opportunity for Trump, especially given his position as a challenger.

However, the dynamics of the 2024 race have shifted with Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate.

Trump, who recently appeared dominant at the Republican National Convention and was buoyed by a successful assassination attempt and strong poll numbers, is now struggling to regain his footing.

Harris, in contrast, is generating considerable enthusiasm, which has made it challenging for Trump to effectively communicate his economic message.

Trump’s simplest strategy to counter Harris’s momentum would be to highlight voter frustration with high prices and attribute the inflationary pressures to her time alongside Biden in the White House.

Yet, Harris’s campaign has centred on economic proposals aimed at easing the cost of living, which may be mitigating Trump’s attacks.

In a recent speech in North Carolina, Harris outlined her plan to expand child tax credits, assist first-time homebuyers, and promote affordable housing construction.

She also proposed measures to combat high food prices by targeting “price gouging” and excessive corporate profits. “By any measure, our economy is the strongest in the world,” Harris said, though she acknowledged that many Americans do not yet feel the benefits of this strength in their daily lives.

Despite positive economic indicators—such as strong growth, record job creation, and inflation falling below 3% for the first time under Biden—voters still feel the pinch of high prices.

“A central banker wants inflation to get back to target. A shopper wants his or her old price back,” remarked Jared Bernstein, chair of President Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers. “Vibes matter,” he added, underscoring the disconnect between economic data and public perception.

I discussed the economic mood with voters at a crab shack on the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland. Jeff Tester, a marina worker, expressed his frustration with rising costs. “I get paid by the hour. I get up to go to work every day. I think you have to do that to get the American dream,” he said. “But I just know it’s getting harder.” Tester placed the blame on Democrats, asserting, “I believe their policies are hurting the working man.”

While many diners voiced concerns about inflation, opinions on who is to blame varied. Dan Nardo, a retired boat broker, pointed to broader issues like the pandemic, oil prices, and supply chain disruptions rather than attributing the problem solely to Biden or Harris.

Randy Turk, a retired lawyer, was sceptical that a new administration could make a significant impact on inflation. “It’s not like a different president can make that much of a difference,” he said.

Harris’s low-profile tenure as vice president, once seen as a disadvantage, could now serve as an advantage if it means she is perceived as less tainted by “Bidenomics.”

Polling data from Ruth Igielnik of the New York Times indicates that negative economic sentiments are largely associated with Biden rather than Harris.

While Trump retains a lead on economic issues, it has narrowed from 18 points over Biden to about 8 points over Harris. “That makes me think voters aren’t necessarily attaching their feelings about the economy to her,” Igielnik said.

A recent Financial Times and University of Michigan Ross School of Business poll found Harris with a slight edge over Trump in trust on economic matters. This has led some Republicans to urge Trump to focus on economic issues rather than personal attacks.

In a recent speech, Trump attempted to address economic concerns but veered off-topic, mentioning issues like immigration, crime, and Harris’s laugh instead.

“They say it’s the most important subject,” Trump admitted, referring to his advisers’ advice. “I’m not sure it is. But they say it’s the most important.”

Matt Terrill, a former chief of staff for Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign, advised Trump to concentrate on core economic issues. “Independent, undecided, swing voters in key states care about the economy and inflation, so just focus on those core issues,” he said.

“Stay focused on talking about how you are going to make the lives of Americans better over the next four years.”

The enduring advice from Jim Carville’s 1992 campaign slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid,” still resonates. Yet, Trump seems to be having difficulty sticking to this straightforward strategy.

According to the Financial Times, only 19% of voters believe they are better off now than when Trump was president, suggesting his economic message might still have traction.

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