In the final Iowa Poll before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight lead over former President Donald Trump, with 47% of likely voters backing her compared to Trump’s 44%, according to the Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey.
However, this 3-point gap falls within the poll’s 3.4-point margin of error, suggesting no clear frontrunner in a state that has generally leaned Republican throughout the current campaign.
The poll results mark a notable shift toward Harris since the previous Iowa Poll in September, where Trump held a slim advantage of 47% to Harris’s 43%.
This shift may signal growing support for Harris, though limited high-quality polling in Iowa this election cycle provides few comparative benchmarks.
Iowa’s electoral history has shown mixed preferences over recent cycles, with the state voting for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, while Trump won it in both 2016 and 2020.
The poll also highlights demographic divides: women in Iowa prefer Harris over Trump by a significant 56% to 36%, while men favor Trump by a narrower 52% to 38%.
Additionally, independent voters, who earlier leaned toward Trump in previous Iowa polls this year, now show a preference for Harris, 46% to 39%.
Older Iowans are a particularly strong base for Harris, with 55% of likely voters aged 65 or older supporting her, compared to Trump’s 36%.
Meanwhile, younger voters under 35 are split almost evenly, with 46% supporting Harris and 44% Trump.
Most Iowa likely voters have firmly decided on their choice, with 91% indicating their minds are made up, 7% open to persuasion, and 2% undecided.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll was conducted by Selzer & Co. from October 28-31 among 808 likely Iowa voters, using telephone interviews.
The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
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