EKO HOT BLOG reports that coup leaders in Niger declared on Tuesday their resolve to withstand external demands to restore ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, despite sanctions from ECOWAS and aid suspension from Western allies.
Niger’s importance is accentuated by its role in combating Islamist militants and its reserves of uranium and oil, making it strategically valuable to the United States, Europe, China, and Russia.
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West African countries and global powers are seeking an opportunity to negotiate with the coup leaders before a summit that could decide on military intervention.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized diplomacy, and acting deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland held talks in Niamey, although she reported the junta officials were unresponsive to U.S. suggestions.
The 15-nation ECOWAS bloc has taken a tougher approach on this coup, considering its own credibility and previous assertions that coups would not be tolerated.
Discussions on possible military action have occurred, though risk intelligence company, Verisk Maplecroft sees an intervention as unlikely due to the potential for further destabilization.
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Its Africa analyst, Ben Hunter in a note said, “The bloc understands that a military intervention would be very costly, with no guarantee of success over the long term, and with a significant risk of escalation into a regional war.
“It is fundamentally not in the interests of regional states.”
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