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INSIGHT: How Failure To Conduct Census Since 2006 Has Hurt Nigerians
On Wednesday, President Bola Tinubu inaugurated a high-level committee for the forthcoming national population and housing census — which does not yet have a date.
Atiku Bagudu, minister of budget and economic planning and chair of the presidential committee, said the committee will recommend practical strategies, including options for mobilising funding both domestically and internationally.
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On his part, Nasir Isa Kwarra, chair of the National Population Commission (NPC), stated that the committee is focused on identifying key requirements and laying the groundwork for the president to make an informed decision on when the census will hold.
The committee is expected to submit its interim report within three weeks.
Femi Gbajabiamila, chief of staff to President Tinubu, Atiku Bagudu, minister of budget and economic planning and chair of the presidential committee on population and housing census, and other members of the committee at the State House
The latest development comes after years of persistent delays and postponements since 2016.
What is a census?
A population census involves gathering, organising, assessing, analysing, publishing, and sharing information about a country’s demographic features at a particular point in time.
Ideally, it should be carried out every ten years to accurately reflect shifts in population trends. It must capture changes in fertility, mortality, migration, and the labour force. Additionally, it should provide insights into the socioeconomic conditions as well as the age and gender distribution of the population.
Nigeria has failed to conduct one since 2006
Ten years after the 2006 census, Nigeria was supposed to hold its next census in 2016, but the Muhammadu Buhari-led government never got around to conducting the process for seven years.
After the delay in 2016, the federal government finally settled on conducting the census in 2022 and the National Assembly approved N177.33 billion for the process, which was never utilised.
Again, the government postponed the process, this time to May 2023, but as had become its custom, the Buhari administration, in April 2023, announced an indefinite postponement in order to allow the new Tinubu administration to pick a date.
However, two years later, the Tinubu administration is still in the process of picking a date as Nigeria draws near 20 years without a census.
Why is a census important?
Census data should deliver accurate information about the population size at national, regional, and local administrative levels.
This data is essential for effective planning in areas such as social services, economic growth, infrastructure development, budgeting, and evaluating government performance.
One key advantage of a population census is its ability to generate data at the most localised levels. For example, health indicators are most effectively tracked at these levels, and accurate local population estimates are crucial for responding to disease outbreaks.
Moreover, census data forms the foundation for other major surveys. Surveys such as the Demographic and Health Surveys, Performance Monitoring for Action, Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, and Malaria Indicator Surveys all base their sampling frameworks on census information.
Even President Tinubu’s chief of staff, who represented him during the Wednesday inauguration event at the State House, acknowledged that a census is critical for national development, planning, and decision-making in areas such as healthcare, education, security, and the economy.
How failure to conduct a timely census has hurt Nigerians
Without a census in nearly 20 years — double the interval there should be between two censuses — Nigerians have been the losers, as the failure has significantly undermined the country’s development planning, resource allocation, and public service delivery.
Taking stock during Nigeria’s 2006’s census (Photo: AP/George Osodi)
Firstly, the failure to conduct a census since 2006 has led to poor government planning and misguided policies. Without up-to-date population data, federal and state governments have been forced to rely on outdated estimates that no longer reflect the true demographic realities. This has led to poor planning across key sectors such as education, health, housing, and transportation. Policies and programmes are often based on guesswork rather than precise data about where people live, how many they are, and what their needs are.
Secondly, the lack of a census has led to skewed budgeting and resource allocation. Census figures are vital for equitable distribution of national resources. In the absence of accurate data, budgeting and revenue sharing among states and local governments have become politically driven rather than needs-based. This means some areas have likely been overfunded while others remain severely underfunded, deepening regional inequalities.
Thirdly, the absence of a census for nearly two decades has resulted in weak infrastructure development. It goes without saying that infrastructure development — from roads to power, water, and schools — depends heavily on population data. The absence of current census data has left planners in the dark about how best to meet growing demand in rapidly expanding urban and rural areas. As a result, infrastructure projects often miss their targets or are concentrated in the wrong places.
Fourthly, the lack of a timely census has dealt the Nigerian health sector devastating setbacks, as effective health interventions — especially during disease outbreaks — require accurate local population estimates. The absence of updated data weakens Nigeria’s response to public health emergencies, vaccine distribution, and routine health service delivery. It also undermines major health surveys that depend on census data for sampling, such as the Demographic and Health Surveys.
Fifthly, the failure to conduct a census is undermining security and humanitarian planning, with Nigeria facing significant internal displacement due to conflicts and natural disasters. Without current population data, efforts to support displaced persons, manage urban migration, or plan security responses are severely hampered. Also, humanitarian aid is often misdirected or insufficient because planners do not know how many people are affected or where they are.
Sixthly and quite importantly, Nigeria has been treated to unfair political representation due to the lack of a census. Ideally, electoral boundary delineation, voter registration, and legislative seat allocation depend on population figures. More specifically, decisions such as the number of House of Representatives seats for each state are made using census data. That means the absence of this vital data for the past 19 years has meant that some Nigerians are currently being underrepresented. Surely, this reality undermines the representative democracy Nigeria claims to operate.
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Without any doubt, nearly 20 years without a census has left Nigeria planning in the dark. As President Tinubu’s administration prepares to finally hold a national population and housing census, the urgency cannot be overstated.
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