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Scholz Wins Breather Amid Party Pressure

Published

3 months ago

Sep 23, 2024.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) managed to fend off the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in a regional election on Sunday.

Securing a temporary respite from mounting internal criticism of his leadership, the SPD staged a late comeback in Brandenburg, an eastern state where they’ve held power since German reunification in 1990, and where Scholz himself has his constituency.

The party garnered 30.9% of the vote, narrowly outpacing the AfD, which claimed 29.2%, according to provisional results released by the State Electoral Commissioner.

Despite the SPD’s victory, the AfD saw a significant surge, increasing its share by 5.7 percentage points compared to the last Brandenburg election five years ago.

This comes after the AfD recently made history by becoming the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since World War II.

The party has been gaining traction by tapping into public concerns over rising living costs, irregular immigration, and fears of escalation in the Ukraine conflict, driven by Germany’s military support for Kyiv.

However, the SPD’s win might be less about voter confidence and more about a desire to block the AfD. According to an ARD exit poll, three-quarters of SPD voters in Brandenburg chose the party not out of conviction but to prevent an AfD victory. The election saw a record turnout of 72.9%.

Brandenburg’s SPD premier, Dietmar Woidke, avoided associating his campaign with Scholz, who has become Germany’s least popular chancellor on record.

Woidke even criticized the federal coalition’s policies and internal conflicts, reflecting the growing unease within the party about Scholz’s leadership.

The election results are unlikely to quell the debate within the SPD over whether Scholz is the right candidate to lead the party into next year’s federal election.

Critics have pointed to his cautious leadership style and poor communication as significant weaknesses.

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When asked if Scholz was the right leader for the party, Woidke responded, “But we must also learn the lessons from this election,” emphasizing the need for the SPD to reconnect with the public. “Especially as the federal level is concerned, there is a lot of catching up to do in the coming months and years.”

Nationally, the SPD’s support has dropped to just 15%, a sharp decline from the 25.7% they secured in the 2021 federal election.

They now trail the AfD, which polls at around 20%, and the opposition conservatives, who lead with 32%.

Amid this backdrop, some within the SPD have suggested considering a more popular figure, like Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, as the party’s candidate for the 2025 elections.

However, Scholz, who has already announced his intention to seek a second term, is unlikely to step aside, and senior party officials continue to back him.

In Berlin, tensions within Scholz’s coalition could escalate after dismal performances by his junior partners in the Brandenburg election.

The Greens failed to surpass the 5% threshold to enter the state parliament for the first time in two decades, securing just 4.1% of the vote. Meanwhile, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) managed less than 1%.

FDP Vice Wolfgang Kubicki issued a stark warning: “Either the traffic light coalition shows that it can draw the necessary conclusions from these elections, or it will cease to exist… We won’t wait until Christmas.

We can’t put the country through that.” FDP leader and Finance Minister Christian Lindner had previously called for an “autumn of decisions,” hinting at the possibility of his party leaving the coalition.

Despite the internal strife, analysts believe the government is unlikely to collapse, as none of the three coalition parties stand to gain from early elections.

Together, they currently poll at around 30%, trailing the conservatives, who poll higher on their own.

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