International
US Election: Trump Leads Harris Among Arab Americans In Latest Poll
This development indicates that the ongoing conflict in Gaza is affecting Democratic support among a voter demographic that holds significant sway in a key battleground state.
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The Arab News/YouGov poll released on Monday shows Trump leading Harris 45% to 43% within this crucial group, just two weeks before the election. Additionally, Trump is perceived as more likely to effectively resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict, with a 39% to 33% advantage over his Democratic opponent on that question.
When asked who would be better for the Middle East “in general,” Trump and Harris are tied at 38%.
Regarding the primary concerns of the Arab-American community, 29% identified the Israel-Palestine conflict as their biggest issue, followed by 21% who pointed to the economy and cost of living, and 13% who cited racism and discrimination.
Despite Trump’s lead, the poll indicates that he is also viewed as more supportive of Israel’s current government than Harris, with a six-point margin.
Conducted with a sample size of 500 Arab Americans, the poll results fall within a margin of error of plus or minus 5.93%.
This poll serves as a warning to Democrats that President Joe Biden’s backing of Israel’s actions in Gaza may jeopardize Harris’s electoral chances ahead of the November 5 vote. Earlier this month, a poll from the Arab American Institute found Trump and Harris nearly tied at 42% to 41%, respectively.
Harris’s support among Arab Americans is notably 18 points lower than Biden’s in 2020.
Arab-American voters are considered crucial to Harris’s electoral prospects due to their substantial presence in Michigan, one of seven key swing states expected to influence the election outcome. Michigan has the largest concentration of Arab Americans in North America, including the first Arab-majority city in the U.S., Dearborn.
In September, the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan—the first U.S. city with an all-Muslim government—endorsed Trump, calling him a “man of principles” and “the right choice.”
Biden won Michigan by about 150,000 votes in 2020, while Trump carried the state by a narrow margin of about 11,000 votes in 2016.
In a direct appeal to Muslim and Arab American voters on Monday, Trump criticized Harris for campaigning alongside former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
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“If Kamala gets four more years, the Middle East will spend the next four decades going up in flames, and your kids will be going off to War, maybe even a Third World War, something that will never happen with President Donald J. Trump in charge,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
“For our Country’s sake, and for your kids, Vote Trump for PEACE!”
Despite his outreach to Muslims, Trump has cast himself as the most pro-Israel US leader in history and claimed that Israel will cease to exist if he is not reelected.
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