- World Bank Cuts Nigeria Growth Forecast to 4.1% for 2026
- Inflation expected to decline gradually to 10.7 percent by 2028
- Regional growth outlook also downgraded across major African economies
The World Bank has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast downward, projecting an average growth rate of 4.1 percent in 2026.
The latest outlook marks a decline from the bank’s October 2025 projection, which estimated that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 4.4 percent in both 2026 and 2027. The forecast for 2027 has also been reduced to 4.2 percent, while growth in 2028 is now expected to reach 4.3 percent.
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EKO HOT BLOG reports that the revised figures were contained in the bank’s April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled “Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,” where it attributed the outlook to improving macroeconomic stability and a gradual recovery in investment.
According to the report, Nigeria’s services sector, particularly ICT, finance, and real estate, will continue to drive growth. However, agriculture and industry are expected to record slower expansion due to persistent structural challenges.
The bank also projected a decline in inflation, estimating it will drop from 23 percent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026, before easing further to 10.7 percent by 2028, supported by the delayed effects of policy tightening and improving supply conditions.
“Although poverty remains elevated, it is expected to decline gradually as inflation eases, albeit more slowly due to higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
“Rising oil prices could support fiscal and external balances, partly offset by capital flow volatility amid global uncertainty.
“However, business sentiment and reform momentum may be dampened by commodity price volatility, tighter global financial conditions, security concerns, and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections,” the bank stated.
On the regional outlook, the World Bank said economic growth in sub Saharan Africa is projected at 4.1 percent in 2026, unchanged from 2025 levels. However, this represents a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from its October 2025 projection.
The report noted that several major economies, including Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Zambia, recorded downward revisions in their 2026 growth forecasts.
“Overall, about 60 percent of the countries in the region, representing 29 out of 47, recorded downward revisions to their 2026 growth forecasts,” the report added.
Despite the downgrade, the bank maintained that economic activity across the region continues to benefit from improved macroeconomic stabilisation, including better inflation control, stronger domestic currencies, and easing fuel and food prices.
