Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased for the fourth consecutive month in July 2025, dropping to 21.88 per cent from 22.22 per cent in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
While the year-on-year figure marks a significant slowdown from the 33.40 per cent recorded in July 2024, analysts caution that the persistent rise in monthly price levels means households continue to face steep living costs.
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The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released Friday, shows that the July rate was 0.34 percentage points lower than June’s reading and 11.52 percentage points below the same period last year. The NBS noted that the sharp year-on-year drop partly reflects a recent change in the CPI base year, now set to November 2009 = 100.
Month-on-Month Inflation Still Rising
Despite the annual moderation, prices are still climbing in the short term. The month-on-month inflation rate rose to 1.99 per cent in July, up from 1.68 per cent in June.
“This means that in July 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in June 2025,” the NBS explained.
The CPI rose to 125.9 in July from 123.4 in June, a 2.5-point increase. On a twelve-month average basis, inflation stood at 25.65 per cent, 5.11 percentage points lower than the 30.76 per cent recorded in July 2024.
Food Inflation Remains Elevated
Food prices continue to exert the strongest pressure on household budgets. Food inflation stood at 22.74 per cent year-on-year in July, down from 39.53 per cent a year earlier but still high enough to strain incomes. On a month-on-month basis, food prices rose by 3.12 per cent, slightly lower than the 3.25 per cent in June.
The moderation was linked to slower price increases in vegetable oil, local rice, maize flour, guinea corn, wheat flour, and millet. However, insecurity and unpredictable weather conditions in rural areas have forced many farms and agribusinesses to scale back output.
President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency on food insecurity in July 2023, aiming to curb rising food costs. But the impact on prices has been limited.
At the state level, Borno recorded the highest annual food inflation at 55.56 per cent, followed by Osun (29.10 per cent) and Ebonyi (29.06 per cent). Katsina (6.61 per cent), Adamawa (9.90 per cent), and Zamfara (14.72 per cent) posted the lowest.
Urban vs Rural Trends
Urban inflation came in at 22.01 per cent year-on-year, while rural inflation stood at 21.08 per cent.
On a monthly basis, rural areas experienced sharper price increases at 2.30 per cent, compared to 1.86 per cent in urban areas, suggesting that supply chain disruptions and transport costs are hitting rural communities harder.
Core Inflation Shows Relief
Core inflation, which strips out volatile agricultural and energy prices, slowed to 21.33 per cent in July from 27.47 per cent a year earlier.
On a month-on-month basis, it fell sharply to 0.97 per cent from 2.46 per cent in June, signalling easing price pressures in non-food categories.
Sectoral Contributions
The largest contributors to the annual headline index were food and non-alcoholic beverages (8.75 per cent), restaurants and accommodation services (2.83 per cent), transport (2.33 per cent), and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (1.84 per cent).
Education (1.36 per cent), health (1.33 per cent), and clothing and footwear (1.10 per cent) also made notable contributions.
State-Level Headline Inflation
At the state level, Borno (34.52 per cent), Niger (27.18 per cent) and Benue (25.73 per cent) posted the highest annual headline inflation rates, while Yobe (11.43 per cent), Zamfara (12.75 per cent) and Katsina (15.64 per cent) recorded the lowest.
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Outlook
While the data confirm that inflation is moderating on an annual basis, the continued rise in monthly price levels indicates Nigerians are not feeling much relief in their daily expenses.
Philip Ibitoye is a Special Correspondent with EKO HOT BLOG. Click here to find daily analysis and critical insight on trending issues in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria.
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