CBN Survey: Nigerian Firms Forecast Steadier Naira, Economic Growth in 2026

CBN Survey: Nigerian Firms Forecast Steadier Naira, Economic Growth in 2026
Findings revealed that the Business Confidence Index stood at 37.5 points in November 2025
Businesses were generally optimistic about activity levels, with positive indices of 43.4 for the next month

Nigerian businesses are projecting a stronger and more stable naira alongside a gradual decline in interest rates through 2026, signalling rising confidence in the country’s monetary policy outlook, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s November 2025 Business Expectations Survey.

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Eko Hot Blog reports that the survey, which covered 1,900 firms nationwide and recorded a 99.1 per cent response rate, showed a steady improvement in business sentiment despite persistent operational challenges across sectors.

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Findings revealed that the Business Confidence Index stood at 37.5 points in November 2025 and is projected to rise consistently to 52.8 points over the next 6 months, reflecting growing optimism about the direction of the Nigerian economy.

Respondents expressed expectations that the naira would appreciate against the dollar throughout the review periods, with the exchange rate outlook index posting positive readings. This suggests that firms are anticipating improved currency stability in the months ahead.

Businesses also projected a gradual easing of borrowing costs, with positive indicators recorded for interest rate expectations from the current month through the next 6 months, pointing to hopes of improved access to credit and reduced financing pressure.

Sectoral analysis showed that the industry sector recorded the highest confidence level at 38.1 index points, followed by services at 37.5 points and agriculture at 36.3 points. All sectors maintained positive outlooks across the review periods, with industry confidence expected to climb to 57 points within the next 6 months.

Regionally, the North-East emerged as the most optimistic with a confidence level of 52.7 index points, while the South-East recorded the lowest at 18.7 points. However, all regions reported positive expectations for future periods, with particularly strong confidence noted in the North-East and North-West.

The mining and quarrying sector showed the strongest confidence in its own operations at 50 index points and recorded the highest capacity utilisation rate at 58.8 per cent in November 2025.

CBN Survey: Nigerian Firms Forecast Steadier Naira, Economic Growth in 2026

The sector also posted the highest employment outlook, while the construction sector led expansion plans with an index of 80.8 points.

Businesses were generally optimistic about activity levels, with positive indices of 43.4 for the next month, 45.6 for the next 3 months and 49.5 for the next 6 months, indicating expectations of sustained economic growth.

Overall capacity utilisation across all sectors averaged 50.1 per cent in November 2025, suggesting moderate operational performance across the economy.

Despite the positive outlook, firms identified major constraints to operations. Insecurity ranked highest at 70.1 index points, followed by high and multiple taxation at 69.7 points, inadequate power supply at 69.3 points, high interest rates at 67.2 points and financial challenges at 64.7 points.

Other notable constraints included an unfavourable economic climate, high bank charges, unclear economic laws, poor infrastructure and an unfavourable political environment, all of which scored above 57 points.

Overall, the survey indicates that while business confidence is improving, financial and structural challenges continue to weigh heavily on operations, underscoring the need for sustained reforms to support private sector growth.