For years, successive Nigerian governments have declared the need to diversify the economy away from oil.
Agriculture, long considered the backbone of the country’s non-oil sector, has been touted as a key growth driver that could absorb labor, generate foreign exchange, and strengthen food security. Yet new figures suggest that performance has been far from impressive.
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According to a report by Quartus Economics seen by EKO HOT BLOG, Nigeria’s agricultural sector expanded by only 12 percent over the past five years, rising from ₦52.8 trillion in 2019 to ₦59.3 trillion in 2024.
Despite this growth, the sector failed to surpass the ₦60 trillion mark. More importantly, the rate of expansion has lagged behind the pace of population growth, meaning the gains have not translated into improved productivity or reduced food insecurity.
Slowing Crop Production
Crop production, which dominates agricultural output, has been a particular source of concern. Between 2020 and 2023, crop production grew at an annual average of 3.75 percent, adding about ₦1.61 trillion annually.
In 2024, under the current administration, growth slowed to 2.9 percent, with an addition of just ₦1.2 trillion. While still positive, the deceleration suggests that earlier momentum has weakened.
Other subsectors fared worse. Fishing, already small in contribution, expanded only 2.4 percent over the five-year period, before slipping into a 1 percent decline in 2024, a loss of ₦15.1 billion in real terms.
Livestock output, which had grown modestly in prior years, contracted by 2.1 percent in 2024, wiping out over half of its previous gains. Forestry, meanwhile, remains below its 2019 level despite a mild rebound last year.
Price-Driven Growth, Not Productivity
Analysts argue that the reported expansion masks deeper structural weakness. Nelson Okwonna, chief executive officer of Octoville Development Company Limited, told The Cable that agricultural GDP growth has been largely price-driven rather than output-driven.
With food prices soaring by more than 50 percent over the same period, nominal GDP increases have reflected inflationary pressures rather than real productivity gains.
“The growth we’re seeing is largely price-driven, not quantity-driven — which is very bad news,” Okwonna said. He argued that falling productivity has exacerbated food security risks, and that the sector’s underperformance represents a policy gap.
Policy and Structural Constraints
While previous administrations attempted to support agricultural output through interventionist schemes — such as the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Anchor Borrowers’ Programme (ABP) launched in 2015 — many of these initiatives have since been discontinued. Under the current government, critics point to an absence of direct industrial policy for agriculture.
“There’s no deliberate strategy around land use, mechanisation, seedling supply, or priority crops,” Okwonna observed.
Another agro-industry expert, Emmanuel Chukwuma of Domena Commodities Limited, stressed that weak linkages between producers, processors, and markets have left the sector vulnerable.
He added that while Nigeria benefited from higher agricultural GDP during the border closure years (2019–2023), when food prices spiked and smallholder investment rose, the recent shift back to imports has undermined domestic confidence.
Outlook
Quartus Economics attributes the agriculture sector’s weakness to climate disruptions, insecurity, and inadequate infrastructure, all of which depress productivity and increase reliance on imports.
Addressing these challenges, experts say, will require investments in mechanisation, irrigation, post-harvest storage, and cold-chain logistics. Livestock, in particular, could benefit from better grain production, since feed costs account for up to 80 percent of rearing expenses.
FURTHER READING
The broader lesson is that while rhetoric about diversifying away from oil has been consistent, agricultural policy has been inconsistent.
Philip Ibitoye is a Special Correspondent with EKO HOT BLOG. Click here to find daily analysis and critical insight on trending issues in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria.
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