Presidential-elect Bola Tinubu
When the sun rises on Saturday, February 25, 2023, the people of Nigeria will be caught on a journey to choose their next leader, like travellers on a perilous expedition through treacherous terrain. This election will shape the fate of the country, at least for the next four years. The air is electric, crackling with anticipation and uncertainty like a gathering storm.
The polls predict a three-horse race in the 2023 presidential election, a situation that is alien to the Nigerian politics.
Traditionally, the race would have been an outright battle between the candidates of the country’s two biggest political parties: the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). However, the Labour Party (LP) has been a major part of the conversation this election cycle, thanks to the decision of Peter Obi, the former governor of Anambra, to throw his hat in the ring.
With his message of optimism, Obi has managed to captivate the hearts of a vast number of young people all over Nigeria, potentially numbering in the millions. This comes as no surprise, as it’s a fairly safe assumption that the majority of Nigerians are utterly weary of the status quo. Yet the question still looms large: will the immense fervor and eagerness surrounding his campaign ultimately lead to a victorious outcome at the polls?
Truly, the LP presidential candidate is not an outsider, as many of his supporters would like everyone to believe, but there’s a fresh air around him that you don’t feel exists around Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Bola Tinubu of the APC. Both septuagenarians have often touted their experience in governance, which is vital, but Obi has also been a two-term governor in Anambra State.
Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Bola Tinubu of the APC.
In terms of qualification, it’s hard to draw sharp contrasts between the three front-runners because they all have experience working in the government and private sectors. Nigeria has almost never had a president who has been in the private sector. You could argue it’s a new dawn this time around.
The winner of the upcoming election will encounter a plethora of economic, fiscal and security difficulties that have beset Nigerians throughout the current administration’s 7-8 year tenure. Despite President Muhammadu Buhari’s assurances that he has done his utmost, it’s evident that his efforts have fallen short.
The president’s successor will have no luxury of a honeymoon. He will not have the luxury of waiting more than six months to appoint a cabinet. He can’t afford to “go slow.” He has to hit the ground running quickly and fast for the sake of more than 80 million Nigerians living in multidimensional poverty. Here are the top issues that he must prioritise for the good of the Nigerian people:
RAISE REVENUE AND FIX THE DEBT PROBLEM
In January 2023, Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO) said the next administration might inherit a public debt of N77 trillion. The debt is an accumulation of foreign and domestic borrowing. The federal government borrowed N6.31 trillion from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through ways and means advances in 10 months (January-October 2022). The ways and means loans the CBN gave to the federal government stood at N23.7 trillion as of January 2023.
As January arrived, the World Bank delivered a sobering message: by 2027, over 62 percent of the federal government’s revenue will be channeled towards servicing interest payments on its loans from the Central Bank of Nigeria. Such a grim forecast bodes ill for an already beleaguered economy that is struggling to generate sufficient revenue.
To illustrate the gravity of the situation, it is worth noting that President Buhari’s 2022 budget proposed N8.80 trillion in fresh borrowings to fund appropriations – a staggering figure that only serves to underscore the nation’s ongoing revenue woes.
The next president will have his hands full and head scheming to find a way out of this logjam. The person won’t have the luxury of not finding a solution to this problem. The current administration has shown itself unable to raise revenue. The next administration must devise creative means to increase revenue without hurting the poor. It must widen the tax net and raise taxes on wealthy people who are not paying their fair share.
Peter Obi of the LP and Bola Tinubu of the APC
The forthcoming leader’s capacity to resolve the nation’s debt and revenue issues will serve as the litmus test for their success or failure. The hopeful outcome is that if they can generate more revenue, they will be able to make significant investments in public services such as education and infrastructure. Let us keep our fingers crossed and remain optimistic.
FIX DISASTROUS FISCAL POLICY
The fiscal policy of the present administration has been a nightmare. The policy has consistently drained the naira of its worth. In March 2015, before President Buhari assumed office, one US dollar was exchanged for around N230. The then-candidate Buhari promised to fix the problem.
“It is sad that the value of the naira has dropped to more than N230 to one dollar; this does not speak well for the nation’s economy,” the president said at a rally about a week before the 2015 presidential election. But he has failed miserably to fulfill his promise to Nigerians. Nearly eight years since Buhari assumed office, the naira has disappointingly fallen to almost N500 to one US dollar.
As of February 24, 2023, the official market exchange rate saw one US dollar exchanged for N460, a stark contrast from the naira’s value eight years ago, which has more than doubled.
Unfortunately, the inconsistent exchange rates have made Nigeria an unfavorable destination for foreign investment. To reverse this troubling trend, the incoming president must prioritize the creation of a comprehensive and robust fiscal policy. It’s vital for the next administration to collaborate with the CBN to eliminate multiple exchange rates and put the naira on a path to recovery, reclaiming most of its lost value.
EDUCATION
On February 14, 2022, the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) embarked on a strike that lasted till October 14, 2022. That was eight months stolen from public university students across the country. Unfortunately, the 2022 strike was not an outlier. The ASUU strike has become an annual ritual that unnecessarily elongates the academic journey of Nigerian youths.
Despite years of promises and pledges to improve and fund the education sector, the issue remains unresolved and continues to haunt Nigeria. Regrettably, the current administration is just another name in a long list of governments that have failed miserably at tackling this problem. The plight of the education sector in Nigeria is an enduring tragedy that demands urgent attention and practical solutions.
There’s a massive opportunity for the next president to write his name in gold and end this problem once and for all. He must come up with strategies that ensure sustainable funding for public tertiary institutions without hurting poor Nigerians seeking a diploma or degree certificate.
Ultimately, the winner of the upcoming presidential election has a decision to make: they can either become another ineffective leader in a long line of disappointments, or they can become the shining light that Nigerians have been yearning for. The country is in dire need of a leader who can rescue it from the brink by tackling issues such as the economy, public infrastructure, security, education, and other factors that are hindering the prosperity of everyday Nigerians.
Nigerians deserve a chance to be happy, and it is the responsibility of the next administration to make good on that promise.
Philip Ibitoye writes for Eko Hot Blog. This media platform reserves all rights to this article.
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