There are lots of nail-biter elections for governor this year, but the one nobody predicted was New York state.
Eko Hot Blog reports that Kathy Hochul, a Democrat who rose to power after New York’s previous governor was ousted in a sexual harassment scandal, is running against Republican Representative Lee Zeldin, a staunch backer of Donald Trump who has failed to denounce his election conspiracies.
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In this famously Democratic-leaning state, you’d expect a Republican to have zero chance. No Republican has held the governor’s mansion since 2007.
So why do polls show Zeldin doing so well, trailing Hochul by only a few points heading into the final days of the race?
It has a lot to do with the issue of crime.
Zeldin has been pummeling Hochul on crime throughout his campaign. The data around crime rates is complicated, especially in New York City where some crimes, like murder, are down year over year but others, like robbery and grand larceny, are up.
But Zeldin’s managed to tap in to a perception among suburban and rural voters that their state is less safe under Hochul.
It’s a smart stragy for Zeldin; a mid-October Quinnipiac Poll showed crime was the top issue for likely New York voters – ahead of even inflation.
It was far and away the top issue for Republican and independent voters, and second for Democrats. It’s still Hochul’s race to lose, and her lead has widened to 52% of likely voters to 44% who support Zeldin, according to recent polls.
But the New York governor’s race will be an indicator of the effectiveness of Republicans’ strategy of relentlessly playing up crime was this year – and whether Democrats did enough to push back.
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For now, big Democrat names are posed to support Hochul on the campaign trail. Vice-President Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton will be joining Hochul at an event on Thursday, while Bill Clinton will lend his support on Saturday.
Source: BBC
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