Lagos politics has always been complex, and with every completed tenure of a governor, the stakes become higher. When an administration ends after eight years, what follows is a chaotic and unpredictable contest.
There is a mad rush for succession, emergence of new political rivalries, the unleashing of financial power, rising disloyalty, clandestine meetings, and ultimately, a last-minute decision that often resets the entire contest within the All Progressives Congress (APC).
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In my previous analysis, I projected that no fewer than eight aspirants were poised to succeed Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu. Yet, no conversation about Lagos politics can be complete without mentioning President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who remains the most strategic political player in the state.
Tinubu, along with the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC), does not merely sit to select a candidate. They assess each aspirant critically, judging who best understands the Lagos development blueprint, who remains loyal, and who can fully embody the APC’s ideology.
Today, Lagos APC faces new pressures. The emergence of the Labour Party, African Democratic Congress (ADC), increasing coalitions at the national level, and the unexpected defection of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, Tinubu’s long-time political ally, now serving as ADC’s National Secretary all point to significant changes. These shifts suggest that Tinubu’s 2027 ambition may not be a smooth journey.
Internally, the APC is dealing with its own fractures. Crises in the State Assembly, troubles with local government appointments, imposition of candidates, and deepening factional rivalries all contribute to a growing instability.
For the first time in a long while, the internal resistance within the APC is more intense than ever.
Within the party are those who feel betrayed. There are individuals whose loyalty over the years has gone unrewarded. Some are operating behind the scenes, others are seeking new platforms to pursue their ambitions.
A large number are quietly resentful, believing that Tinubu’s prolonged dominance in Lagos politics is now obstructing their political dreams.
This growing discontent raises an important question: who will be Tinubu’s surprise candidate? Many aspirants are quietly aligning themselves, yet none can truly move without Tinubu’s final approval. His endorsement is still the determining factor, even in a field full of ambition and scheming.
In this context, one man stands out — Akinwunmi Ambode. If brought back, Ambode can only serve one term of four years, which provides a strategic advantage. It allows Tinubu to shift focus fully to national politics without worrying about Lagos succession battles.
When Tinubu eventually returns to state politics, the transition would be easier, with no lingering political obligations.
Ambode should be Tinubu’s strategic fallback. He must remain part of the political plan for 2027. His relevance is not just based on experience, but also on popular appeal and public trust.
Among ordinary Lagosians, Ambode remains highly respected. His tenure was marked by infrastructure expansion, improved road networks on the mainland, timely payment of salaries to civil servants, effective traffic management, and a clear development agenda. His projects and policies are still fresh in public memory.
There is also a growing perception that opposition parties may attempt to recruit Ambode. His broad-based popularity and technocratic credentials could appeal to voters across party lines. If ignored, he could become a formidable force outside of APC.
Meanwhile, Tinubu must manage increasing internal resistance within his own camp. While he has survived many political battles before, the recent shifts suggest a weakening grip. He has lost loyal allies, and recent events show that even those remaining may not all be on the same page.
Even within APC, members now openly admit regret for not supporting Ambode during the 2019 primaries. They recognize his developmental legacy, but party loyalty at the time demanded a different course.
Today, however, the story has changed. Ambode is widely seen as the one who can unite the party and reconnect with the people.
Lagosians have not forgotten how Ambode was denied a second term. They still empathize with him.
His calm but firm press conference during the 2019 primary, and the political victimisation that followed, left a lasting impression. Across ethnic, social, and political divides, Lagosians continue to admire the man from Epe.
As 2027 draws near and political tension rises within Lagos APC, Tinubu must decide what is best for the party and the state. The answer is becoming more evident with each passing day.
Akinwunmi Ambode is the answer to Lagos 2027.
