The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released newly rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, shifting the base year from 2010 to 2019.
This recalibration, the first in over a decade, has resulted in a 41.7% upward revision of Nigeria’s nominal GDP estimates. While less dramatic than the 59.7% surge following the 2014 rebasing, the new figures still mark a substantial shift in how the country’s economic output is measured.
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Nominal GDP rose from ₦205.09 trillion in 2019 to ₦372.82 trillion in 2024, painting a picture of a far larger economy than previously recorded. Yet beneath the nominal growth lies a more sobering trend. Real GDP growth, adjusted for inflation, was -6.96% in 2020, showing the pandemic’s severe economic impact. It recovered to 0.95% in 2021, and posted higher growth in subsequent years—4.32% in 2022, 3.04% in 2023, and 3.38% in 2024.
Despite the increased size of the economy in statistical terms, Adeniran Adeyemi, the Statistician-General of the Federation, stressed that the exercise was not aimed at flattering the government’s performance but was a professional obligation grounded in international best practices.
“It is also essential to state that the conduct of this exercise is not instituted or directed by the government to fulfil any set target or objectives,” Adeyemi clarified in a statement on Monday. “This is merely a routine activity… one that NBS undertakes in fulfilment of our mandate and as a responsible producer and manager of official statistics in Nigeria.”
This distinction matters in a context where GDP revisions can be politically sensitive. The bureau has faced accusations of statistical manipulation or fabrication in the past.
A Deeper and Broader Economic Net
Adeyemi also emphasised the expanded scope of this year’s rebasing effort, which included previously missing sectors and informal activities. The exercise incorporated new surveys and broader data collection efforts that aimed to give a more realistic and inclusive snapshot of economic life in Nigeria.
“For those who can recall, when presenting the results of the 2014 rebasing exercise… the Bureau mentioned that two major activities were missing: the Business Sample Census and the Agriculture Sample Census,” he said.
“Under this round, however, not only have both censuses been conducted, but other notable data collection activities have also been carried out.”
The result is a significantly more comprehensive dataset that includes granular insights into sectors previously underestimated or excluded altogether—digital economy activities, informal trading, modular refineries, quarrying, household employers, water transport, and financial services tied to pension funds and the National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA).
These additions help correct long-standing blind spots in national accounting and enable more accurate policymaking.
“Given these changes, it is only right that the parameters used to estimate the size, structure, and movements in the economy are updated periodically, ensuring an accurate and realistic picture of the economy,” Adeyemi said.
Why Rebasing Matters—and What Comes Next
Rebasing a country’s GDP is not a cosmetic update; it has real implications. Updated GDP estimates affect a wide range of national and international benchmarks: debt-to-GDP ratios, sectoral shares of the economy, foreign investment assessments, and budget projections.
Adeyemi underlined that this is not unique to Nigeria.
“This is not a Nigerian affair; it is a global practice, conventionally done every five years, of course, depending on resource availability and the technical capacity of the statistical office.”
That last caveat—resource availability—underlines why Nigeria went over a decade without rebasing its GDP. The technical capacity required, including comprehensive nationwide surveys and inter-agency coordination, is immense. But for Adeyemi, the results were worth it:
“This one is by far the most comprehensive of any rebasing exercise conducted by the Bureau,” he said.
FURTHER READING
With these new data, economic managers now have more credible tools to assess performance, identify gaps, and plan interventions.
Philip Ibitoye is a Special Correspondent with EKO HOT BLOG. Click here to find daily analysis and critical insight on trending issues in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria.
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