Nigeria’s inflation trend took a significant turn in December 2025, with a headline inflation rate of 15.15%, down from 17.33% in November and a dramatic decline from the 34.80% recorded in December 2024, because of the rebasing of the statistics in February 2025.
According to the inflation report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday, this represents the continuation of a disinflationary trend that has seen price pressures ease significantly over the past year, offering relief to households and businesses alike.
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 131.2 in December, up marginally by 0.7 points from November’s 130.5. More importantly, the month-on-month inflation rate stood at 0.54%, considerably lower than November’s 1.22%, indicating that the pace of price increases has moderated substantially. This deceleration suggests that the aggressive monetary and fiscal interventions implemented throughout 2025 may be yielding desired results.
Food Prices Lead the Decline
The most striking development in December’s inflation report is the dramatic cooling of food inflation, which fell to 10.84% on a year-on-year basis from a staggering 39.84% in December 2024. Even more notable is the month-on-month food deflation of -0.36%, compared to a 1.13% increase in November.
This reversal marks a significant shift in the cost of living for millions of Nigerians, for whom food constitutes a substantial portion of household expenditure.
The NBS attributed this decline to falling prices across essential food items including tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, vegetables, plantain, beans, wheat grain, grounded pepper, and onions. This broad-based price reduction suggests improved agricultural output and better supply chain efficiency, possibly reflecting the impact of recent harvests and reduced transportation costs following the stabilization of fuel prices.
The twelve-month average food inflation rate stood at 22.00%, indicating that while December showed improvement, households have endured elevated food costs throughout much of 2025. The rural inflation rate, which declined to -0.55% month-on-month, further underscores the agricultural sector’s role in driving down overall inflation, as rural areas are more directly influenced by farm produce prices.
State Disparities and Structural Challenges
Despite the national improvement, inflation experiences varied significantly across Nigeria’s states. On a year-on-year basis, Abia recorded the highest inflation at 19.03%, followed by Ogun at 18.80% and Katsina at 18.66%. Meanwhile, Sokoto enjoyed the lowest rate at 8.61%, with Plateau and Kaduna at 9.05% and 10.38% respectively.
Month-on-month figures revealed even sharper contrasts. Cross River experienced a 3.11% increase, while Ondo recorded a deflation of -3.74%. These disparities reflect varying local economic conditions, state-level policies, and consumption patterns. The NBS cautioned that interstate comparisons should be approached carefully, as consumption expenditure patterns differ across states and locations, with varying weights assigned to different items in the CPI basket.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 18.63% year-on-year, down from 29.28% in December 2024. However, at 18.63%, core inflation remains higher than the headline rate of 15.15%, suggesting that non-food items and services continue to experience persistent price pressures.
This indicates that while food prices have moderated, structural inflationary factors in areas such as housing, transportation, and manufactured goods remain elevated.
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Notably, the NBS employed a twelve-month index reference period, setting the entire year of 2024 to 100, rather than using December 2024 as a single-month reference point. The bureau said this methodological adjustment, aligned with International Monetary Fund (IMF) guidelines, prevents artificial spikes caused by base effects and provides a more accurate reflection of inflationary trends.
Philip Ibitoye is a Special Correspondent with EKO HOT BLOG. Click here to find daily analysis and critical insight on trending issues in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria.
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