A quiet price war is raging in Nigeria’s petroleum market and for once, the average Nigerian might be coming out on top.
Over the past week, independent fuel importers have slashed petrol prices below the rates offered by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, leading to visible drops at the pump in parts of Lagos, Ogun, and other states.
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Some filling stations in Lagos and Ogun have reduced pump prices below ₦860 per litre. One station, SGR in Ogun State, lowered its price to ₦847 per litre as of Tuesday.
In contrast, Dangote partners such as MRS, Heyden and others are selling at between ₦865 and ₦875 in Lagos and Ogun States.
As of Wednesday evening, EKO HOT BLOG learnt that the Dangote refinery was selling petrol at ₦823 per litre, while some depots offered the product at ₦815 per litre. According to Petroleumprice.ng, Mao and Menj’s are currently selling at ₦815 per litre.
While refinery owner Aliko Dangote describes the price disparity as “unfair competition” and has called for a ban on fuel imports, many marketers and analysts argue that this is precisely what a liberalised market is meant to do: lower costs, offer choice, and put the consumer first.
‘This is the beauty of opening up the market’
The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) says the government should reject any attempt to restrict imports, calling the ongoing price cuts a welcome development.
“This is the beauty of the liberalisation of the market,” said IPMAN National Publicity Secretary, Chinedu Ukadike. “Nobody should be stopped from bringing in petroleum products. Implementation and local refining will checkmate unfair pricing.”
Ukadike told The PUNCH that many depot owners are now selling at ₦815–₦817 per litre, undercutting Dangote’s ₦823. Even the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has yet to match these prices, still hovering around ₦825.
Dangote’s case: ‘Unfair competition’ and toxic imports
But the Dangote refinery sees the situation differently. Dangote argues that the massive investments in local refining—like his $20 billion, 650,000-barrel-per-day plant in Lagos—are being undercut by cheap, imported fuel, some allegedly subsidised or smuggled in from countries such as Russia.
“Due to the price caps on Russian petroleum products, discounted fuel finds its way into Africa, severely undercutting our local production,” Dangote said at a recent regulatory summit. “This is unfair competition.”
He also warned of alleged dumping of substandard, even “toxic”, fuel that would not be permitted in Europe or North America.
Citing global examples, Dangote urged the Federal Government to protect local refining the way the United States, Canada and EU countries do by restricting imports and prioritising local industry under the “Nigeria First” policy recently announced by President Bola Tinubu.
Who should the market serve: Producers or consumers?
But consumer advocates and economists warn that shielding local refiners from competition could do more harm than good, especially when the promised benefits of subsidy removal and deregulation are only just beginning to materialise for ordinary Nigerians.
“Competition is driving prices down. That’s how markets are supposed to work,” one independent marketer in Lagos said. “Once you start banning imports, you create a monopoly and Nigerians will pay for it.”
Indeed, earlier this year, many feared that Dangote’s dominance could push prices up if he became the sole supplier. Importers initially struggled to compete, recording losses as Dangote slashed prices to gain market share. Now that importers have found ways to offer cheaper fuel, the refinery is seeking protection.
The danger of picking winners
While Dangote’s refinery is a national asset with the potential to boost local refining and reduce import dependency, many experts argue that consumers should not bear the cost of making it viable.
Moreover, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) is already empowered to check the quality of imported fuels, according to IPMAN.
If toxic or substandard products are a concern, enforcement, not protectionism, is the answer.
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For now, the ongoing price war is proof that market liberalisation can work. Importers are back in the game, offering Nigerians better deals at the pump. But how long this lasts may depend on how the federal government responds to Dangote’s calls.
Philip Ibitoye is a Special Correspondent with EKO HOT BLOG. Click here to find daily analysis and critical insight on trending issues in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria.
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