On Sunday, people in Nigeria and around the world woke up to reports of air strikes on nuclear sites in Iran by the United States (US).
US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly said the US would not allow Iran to build nuclear weapons, announced on Sunday that American military fighter pilots had struck three nuclear sites—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—in Iran to halt the country’s nuclear weapons ambitions.
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The Iranian government quickly condemned the strikes, and its parliament decided to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a vital channel for around 20% of the world’s oil, equating to roughly 20 million barrels per day.
At the time of publishing, the Iranian parliament’s resolution to close the channel was yet to be approved by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, which makes the final decision.
However, if enforced, this move could have significant consequences for countries that rely heavily on imported fuel, including Nigeria. Essentially, Nigerians would pay excessive prices for petrol as a result of an oil price spike.
Since President Bola Tinubu removed the fuel subsidy on his inauguration day in May 2023, market forces have determined the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, better known as petrol, and other petroleum products.
This means that if an Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers an oil price spike, Nigerian consumers will bear a substantial financial burden.
When trading opened on Monday, Brent and the main US crude contract, WTI, both jumped more than four per cent, hitting their highest prices since January.
However, they later pared these gains. By mid-morning, Brent was up 2.1 per cent at $75.43 per barrel, while WTI was 2.1 per cent higher at $78.64.
Already, EKO HOT BLOG observed that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has responded to this surge by raising the pump price of petrol to ₦915 per litre in Lagos and ₦945 in Abuja on Monday.
The latest pump price marks a 6.4% increase from the ₦860 per litre some NNPC stations briefly offered in March 2025, when prices were reduced from ₦945 following a short-term drop in supply costs.
However, the price may rise significantly if Iran proceeds with closing the Strait of Hormuz.
According to a new report by Goldman Sachs, Brent crude could climb as high as $110 per barrel if Iran blocks the critical channel, meaning much higher petrol prices for Nigerians.
Nigeria’s Vulnerability
Although the advent of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reduced Nigeria’s reliance on fuel imports, the country still heavily depends on them.
For example, recent findings project that the Dangote Refinery will import a total of 17.65 million barrels of crude oil between April and July 2025, beginning with about 3.65 million barrels already delivered in the past two months, amid ongoing allocations under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy.
Last week, President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, said his 650,000-barrel-capacity refinery was “increasingly” relying on the United States for crude oil, citing a shortage of domestic supply.
With Nigeria still dependent on imported oil, any spike in global oil prices will directly impact how much consumers in Nigeria pay for refined products.
‘World’s Most Important Oil Transit Chokepoint’
The Strait of Hormuz, located between Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) describes the channel as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint. Chokepoints are narrow channels along widely used global sea routes that are critical to global energy security.
“The inability of oil to transit a major chokepoint, even temporarily, can create substantial supply delays and raise shipping costs, increasing world energy prices,” the EIA states.
Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have operating pipelines that can circumvent the Strait of Hormuz.
Yet, based on tanker tracking data published by Vortexa, Saudi Arabia moves more crude oil and condensate through the Strait of Hormuz than any other country, most of which is exported to other countries, underlining the channel’s importance.
Reactions to Iran’s Threats to Close Strait of Hormuz
While the world awaits the Iranian Supreme National Security Council’s decision on their parliament’s vote, the US, China, and other countries are warning the Islamic Republic not to close the Strait of Hormuz.
In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on China to help prevent Iran from closing it.
“If they do that, it will be another terrible mistake,” he added. “It’s economic suicide for them if they do it.”
The EIA estimated that 82% of the crude oil and condensate that moved through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asian markets in 2022.
More specifically, China, India, Japan, and South Korea were the top destinations for crude oil moving through the Strait to Asia, accounting for 67% of all Hormuz crude oil and condensate flows in 2022 and the first half of 2023.
China reportedly issued a warning to Iran after threats to close the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
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“The Persian Gulf and nearby waters are vital trade corridors. They must be kept stable and free from disruption,” it said.
Philip Ibitoye is a Special Correspondent with EKO HOT BLOG. Click here to find daily analysis and critical insight on trending issues in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria.
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