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Nasir El-Rufai’s Defection: The Beginning and End of the 2027 Elections

Published

1 month ago

Mar 16, 2025.

Mallam Nasir El-Rufai’s departure from the All Progressives Congress (APC) and subsequent adoption of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) have sparked controversy and debate within Nigeria’s political sphere.

Citing irreconcilable differences, El-Rufai has been vocal about his reasons for leaving the APC, asserting that the party no longer aligns with its founding principles.

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El-Rufai’s move has garnered both criticism and praise, with APC loyalists viewing his defection as a betrayal.

However, his reputation as a reformer and implementer may attract professionals and technocrats seeking an alternative to the current political landscape.

Nevertheless, El-Rufai’s controversial policies in Kaduna and perceived arrogance have alienated potential allies, casting doubt on his ability to unite the opposition.

The timing of El-Rufai’s defection raises questions, occurring nearly two years before the next election cycle.

Some speculate that he sees an opportunity in Nigeria’s current economic challenges, with inflation and purchasing power at historic lows presenting an opening for opposition to the ruling APC.

He intends to collaborate with other dissatisfied politicians reveals his intention to establish the SDP as a credible option for the 2027 general elections. While the ultimate effect of this strategic shift remains unknown, it has undeniably caused waves within Nigeria’s political circles.

Harnessing his characteristic outspokenness, Nasir El-Rufai has launched a relentless barrage of criticism against the All Progressives Congress (APC) since his departure.

Unwavering in his conviction that the party has strayed from its founding principles, El-Rufai has remained steadfast in his accusations despite dismissal from APC loyalists like Daniel Bwala and other political figures.

His departure from the APC was an anticipated move, given his history of discontent with the party and presidency.

Nasir El-Rufai's Defection: The Beginning and End of the 2027 Elections

Since his defection, Nigerians have been divided on two key questions: Was El-Rufai’s decision justified, and does he still have the political influence to impact the 2027 elections significantly? These questions require careful analysis.

While El-Rufai cited the APC’s deviation from its founding principles as the reason for his exit, some analysts suspect a combination of strategic calculation and genuine frustration with the party’s direction.

El-Rufai’s status as a founding member of the APC and his ongoing meetings with opposition leaders, including former President Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar, suggest that he is attempting to forge a strong coalition capable of challenging the ruling party in future elections.

However, his controversial policies as Kaduna State governor and perceived arrogance have alienated some potential allies, making the outcome of his efforts uncertain.

As Nigeria approaches the 2027 elections, the political scene remains fluid, with El-Rufai’s moves only adding to the complexity. Whether his defection proves to be a misstep or a calculated power move, one thing is clear: the opposition will need unity and a formidable figure like Atiku Abubakar to effectively challenge President Bola Tinubu and the APC.

El-Rufai’s calculated defection to the SDP could be a key step in laying the groundwork for a significant political shift akin to that of 2015, when the opposition successfully challenged the incumbent government.

While it remains uncertain if the SDP will become the central force behind a new opposition coalition, El-Rufai’s ability to persuade other disgruntled politicians and key players from the APC will be crucial in determining the party’s trajectory.

The potential formation of a new political alliance ahead of the 2027 elections looms large, and El-Rufai’s strategic positioning of the SDP could secure its role as a major player in any future merger.