Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dropped to 22.22 percent in June 2025, a decline from 22.97 percent in May, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
More strikingly, this marks a sharp year-on-year drop of 11.97 percentage points when compared to the 34.19 percent recorded in June 2024.
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At first glance, this appears to be good news. A falling headline inflation rate means that, on average, prices are not increasing as rapidly as they were a year ago.
However, EKO HOT BLOG observed that the decline is largely due to a technical adjustment in the base year used for comparison, not necessarily because of improved economic fundamentals. In simple terms, the inflation figures now reference a different pricing period, which can make the current rate appear lower.
More specifically, the 34.19 percent recorded in June 2024 compared to the 22.22 percent recorded in June 2025 were not measured with the same metrics. In the January inflation report, the NBS rebased the Consumer Price Index (CPI), causing a big drop in the inflation numbers.
Meanwhile, a look at the month-on-month inflation rate, which reflects short-term changes in prices, tells a more concerning story. Prices rose by 1.68 percent in June, compared to 1.53 percent in May. This suggests that, although the annual inflation rate is declining, Nigerians are still experiencing price increases on a monthly basis, and at a slightly faster pace than the previous month.
The increase in the CPI means that the cost of goods and services, though growing more slowly than last year, is still actively climbing month by month.
Food prices: Slower growth annually, but sharp monthly spike
Food inflation, which affects the average Nigerian more directly than general inflation, followed a similar pattern. Year-on-year, food inflation dropped to 21.97 percent in June, down from 40.87 percent in June 2024, a significant 18.93 percentage point decrease. Again, this large drop is largely a statistical outcome due to the updated base year.
The real concern lies in the month-on-month data. Food prices rose by 3.25 percent in June, compared to 2.19 percent in May, a full 1.07 percentage point jump. This signals a worsening cost burden on households, particularly low-income earners who spend a larger share of their income on food.
The NBS attributed the increase to rising prices of commonly consumed items such as green peas, fresh pepper, tomatoes, dried shrimps, crayfish, meat, plantain flour, and ground pepper. These are staples in many Nigerian households, meaning that even small increases in their prices can have an outsized impact on food security and living standards.
Over a 12-month average, food inflation was recorded at 28.28 percent, lower than 35.3 percent in June 2024. While this average gives a broader sense of slowing food price growth over the year, it doesn’t capture the sharp price spikes occurring in the last few months.
Wide regional gaps reflect uneven price pressure
The inflation data also reveals significant disparities across Nigeria’s states, highlighting how inflation affects regions differently. On a year-on-year basis, Borno (47.40%), Ebonyi (30.62%), and Bayelsa (28.64%) recorded the highest food inflation rates, far above the national average. This indicates either persistent supply shortages, security challenges, or market inefficiencies in these areas.
In contrast, Katsina (6.21%), Adamawa (10.90%), and Sokoto (15.25%) experienced the slowest rise in food prices year-on-year, suggesting better food availability or more stable local markets.
Month-on-month changes, which show how rapidly prices are shifting in the short term, also varied sharply. States like Enugu (11.90%), Kwara (9.97%), and Rivers (9.88%) saw the fastest monthly spikes in food prices. Meanwhile, states such as Borno (-7.63%), Sokoto (-6.43%), and Bayelsa (-6.34%) experienced month-on-month declines, which could reflect seasonal harvests or short-term price corrections.
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Overall, while the inflation figures suggest some annual relief, the persistent and even accelerating monthly increases, especially in food, point to a continued cost-of-living challenge for many Nigerians. Understanding the difference between long-term averages and short-term price movements is key to interpreting this inflation report accurately.
Philip Ibitoye is a Special Correspondent with EKO HOT BLOG. Click here to find daily analysis and critical insight on trending issues in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria.
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