The 2026 Ballon d’Or race could be one of the most interesting and difficult to predict in a very long time. We have had an incredible run of form from some of the best players in the world, and the funny thing is that almost every serious contender has something different to put on the table.
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You have the player with the Champions League, the one with the World Cup, another with ridiculous numbers, another who broke records, and then you have players who simply played football at a level that made you stop and watch.
So, where do we even start?
Ousmane Dembele has a very strong case, especially because of what he achieved with Paris Saint Germain. He helped PSG win the Champions League, Ligue 1 and the Trophée des Champions, he also had a decent World Cup with France, scoring six goals and providing two assists. But here is where his case becomes complicated. France finished fourth, and when you put his individual numbers next to some of the other contenders, you begin to wonder if the Champions League trophy will be enough to push him over the line.
Then there is Michael Olise, the 24 year old has enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career with Bayern Munich. He won the Bundesliga, DFB Pokal and German Super Cup, while producing 20 goals and 25 assists for the club. But it was his World Cup performance that really made people sit up. Olise finished the tournament with seven assists, breaking the record. Seven assists at a World Cup is not something you just ignore.
The only problem is that France did not win the tournament, they finished fourth.
Harry Kane also had a season that makes you wonder why this conversation is even so complicated. Bayern won three domestic trophies, while Kane finished the season with a massive 72 goals for club and country. He also scored six goals and provided one assist at the World Cup as England finished third.
For a player who has spent so many years being questioned because of the lack of major trophies in his career, this season feels different. Kane finally has the trophies to go with the goals. But then again, he did not win the World Cup, and that is where the argument against him begins.
Lamine Yamal is another player who cannot simply be judged by looking at a spreadsheet. Yes, he finished the club season with 22 goals and 15 assists across La Liga and the Champions League, but anyone who watched him play knows there is much more to his game.
Yamal has become the kind of player who can change the feeling of a match, then he won the World Cup with Spain.
That is a huge advantage in this race. The problem? Yamal scored only once at the tournament.
For a player competing against Kane, Mbappe and others who had huge numbers, that could become a serious issue.
Lionel Messi is probably the easiest player to discuss and the hardest to completely rule out. Argentina did not win the World Cup, but Messi still produced one of the best individual tournaments we have seen from any player in a very long time. Eight goals and four assists as Argentina reached the final is simply incredible.
But this is not the same Messi who won the World Cup in 2022. His club season does not carry the same weight as the campaigns of his European rivals, and Argentina eventually lost the final to Spain. So, as brilliant as he was, it is difficult to see him winning the award ahead of players who had stronger club seasons.
Rodri gives us another completely different argument, he was one of the most important players in Spain’s World Cup triumph and emerged as the tournament’s best player. If you believe the Ballon d’Or should be about understanding who actually made the biggest difference on the pitch, then Rodri has a serious case.
But injuries affected his season, and his club campaign was not as strong as those of some of his rivals, his case is about influence, control and the importance of his position.
Then there is Kylian Mbappe, and this man has made the conversation even more difficult.
Mbappe finished as the top scorer at the World Cup, Champions League and La Liga. Think about that for a moment. Three of the biggest competitions in football, and he finished top scorer in all of them.
That is extraordinary.
But once again, the World Cup gets in the way. France finished fourth, and Mbappe does not have the same collection of major trophies as some of the other contenders.
So, who deserves it?
For me, Harry Kane should win the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
Not because he has the best statistics in every category. Not because the other players have failed to make a case. In fact, that is exactly what makes this year’s award so interesting.
Yamal has the World Cup. Dembele has the Champions League. Rodri has the World Cup Golden Ball. Olise has broken records. Mbappe has dominated the scoring charts. Messi has once again shown the world his magic.
But when I look at the entire season, Kane’s case feels the most complete.
He has the goals, he has the trophies, he has delivered for club and country, and for once, he has had the kind of season that matches the reputation he has built over the years.
The 2026 Ballon d’Or may come down to what voters value most. Is it the World Cup? Is it the Champions League? Is it individual brilliance? Is it goals and assists?
Whatever the answer is, one thing is certain.
This is not going to be an easy Ballon d’Or to predict.
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