- Global commodity prices are expected to rise by 16% in 2026, the first annual increase in four years, driven largely by Middle East supply disruptions and volatility in Brent crude.
- The World Bank warns that if oil stays above $100 per barrel, an additional 45 million people could face acute food insecurity due to skyrocketing transport and fertilizer costs.
- Growth forecasts for emerging markets have been revised down to 3.6% for 2026, while projected inflation has been hiked to 5.1% amid a “fragile” global environment.
The World Bank has issued a stark warning in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, noting that the escalating conflict in the Middle East is creating a dangerous ripple effect through global markets.
Eko Hot Blog reports that Brent crude prices saw unprecedented volatility in early 2026, surging from $72 to $118 in a single month following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
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While prices have recently stabilized around $86, a prolonged conflict could push them back above $100, a threshold that traditionally triggers severe food crises in developing nations.
Higher energy prices are directly inflating the cost of fertilizer, with the World Bank’s fertilizer price index jumping 12% in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
Nitrogen- and phosphate-based products are projected to rise by 30% over the year, making it increasingly difficult for farmers in import-dependent economies to maintain agricultural output.
This “double blow” of high logistics costs and expensive farm inputs is expected to keep domestic food inflation high, even as some agricultural commodities like cocoa and coffee see price declines.
Beyond fuel and food, the report highlights a massive 42% projected surge in precious metals like gold and silver as investors seek “safe havens” amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Natural gas markets have also tightened, with Asian LNG benchmarks climbing 94% in March.
As emerging economies struggle with the fallout of the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, the World Bank emphasizes that risks remain heavily tilted to the upside, particularly if shipping constraints persist or extreme weather events further disrupt global harvests.
