- Nigeria recorded an estimated windfall of ₦5.13tn in March and April 2026 as global oil prices soared due to the US-Iran conflict.
- The windfall was primarily driven by high crude prices (reaching up to $134 per barrel for Bonny Light) rather than meeting production targets, which remained below the 1.8 million bpd budget benchmark.
- Despite increased government earnings, petrol prices have spiked, with the Dangote Refinery raising gantry prices to ₦1,275per litre and pump prices hitting up to ₦1,400 in some areas.
- Energy economists and industry leaders are urging the Federal Government to use the windfall for targeted cash transfers to vulnerable citizens and to reconsider international pricing benchmarks for domestic refiners.
The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has created a “two-edged sword” for the Nigerian economy.
Eko Hot Blog reports that while the Federal Government’s coffers have swelled by ₦5.13tn beyond budget assumptions, the average Nigerian is facing severe inflationary pressure as fuel and transportation costs skyrocket.
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In March alone, the daily revenue windfall averaged ₦38.38bn, growing significantly in April to ₦131.42bn per day as crude prices climbed.
However, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has raised alarms that petrol could exceed ₦1,500 per litre if the Middle East crisis persists.
Experts like Professor Adeola Adenikinju emphasize that this revenue boost provides a critical window for the government to implement direct support mechanisms for the poor, though the lack of a comprehensive database for vulnerable populations remains a hurdle.
Meanwhile, local refiners are pushing for a “domestic pricing arrangement” to decouple local fuel costs from the volatility of the global Brent benchmark.
