International
Ukraine Holds On in Kursk as Russia Launches Expulsion Effort
A Russian counterattack aimed at reclaiming lost territory in Kursk is underway, but its momentum remains sluggish.
Ukraine’s surprise cross-border assault last month caught even Kyiv’s allies off guard, and while it’s unlikely to hold onto its gains, the situation remains fluid.
Geolocated video footage shows Russian units retaking a few villages, but the quality and number of troops committed to the region are unclear.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledges the start of Russia’s counteroffensive, stating, “Our heroic soldiers are holding on.”
The US assesses that Russia needs up to 20 brigades (around 50,000 men) to expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk, but so far, Russian actions have been “marginal.”
Some high-caliber units, like the elite 51st Airborne Regiment, are involved in the counter-offensive, but analysts haven’t seen the mass or quality needed to quickly drive out the smaller Ukrainian force.
Ukrainian units may be developing a new assault route into a different part of Kursk, potentially to distract Russian forces.
Robert Rose of the Modern War Institute notes, “By launching surprise offensives across the thinly defended border, Ukraine can pursue operational-level guerrilla warfare to support an overall strategy of exhaustion.”
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Despite the gathering Russian counterattack and mounting Ukrainian losses, Zelensky insists the incursion into Kursk is necessary and valuable, slowing Russian advances in eastern Donetsk.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin seeks to fully capture four eastern Ukrainian regions, and most of the fighting has focused on this area.
Zelensky claims the Kursk operation has shown Putin’s warnings about escalation to be hollow and has added another justification: that it forestalled a Russian plan to create a buffer zone in northern Ukraine.
The ISW think-tank suggests the Russian military command may have intended additional offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine to stretch Ukrainian forces.
For now, such Russian ambitions are on hold. The Ukrainians prioritize creating defensive lines in the east, accelerating new unit formation, developing longer-range strike capabilities, and demanding greater freedom to use precision western missiles in strikes deep inside Russian territory.
Zelensky appeals for support, stating, “Russia’s guided aerial bombs are responsible for 80% of destroyed infrastructure – and Ukraine urgently needs to hit the airfields from which they are launched.”
The Biden Administration is cautious about escalation, but UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasizes the importance of supporting Ukraine in this “vital war of freedom.”
The Kursk incursion may encourage Ukraine to develop new tools to exploit vulnerabilities and create chaos.
Matthew Schmidt of the University of New Haven asks, “Does it make Putin negotiate? Does it cause him to pull back or pause in Donetsk?” The answer will define the success of Ukraine’s strategy.
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