Nigeria’s battle against soaring prices gained fresh momentum in October 2025, as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed another decline in the country’s inflation rate — the seventh straight slowdown this year.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released on Monday, shows headline inflation easing to 16.05 percent, a significant softening that reinforces signs of stabilisation in the macroeconomic environment.
Sustained Disinflation Signals Shifting Price Dynamics
According to the NBS, the October figure is 17.82 percentage points lower than the 33.88 percent recorded in the same month last year, marking one of the sharpest year-on-year decelerations in over a decade.
This continued disinflation suggests that earlier monetary tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), combined with improved supply conditions, is beginning to filter through the economy.
However, the monthly numbers paint a more nuanced picture. The 0.93 percent month-on-month increase in October is slightly higher than the 0.72 percent recorded in September, indicating that although prices are rising more slowly year-on-year, the short-term pace of price increases has picked up.
This shift suggests that some underlying pressures — especially in food markets — remain unresolved and require sustained policy attention.
Food Inflation Weakens but Pressure Points Remain Visible
Food inflation, historically the biggest driver of Nigeria’s inflationary spikes, also recorded a significant slowdown. The year-on-year rate fell to 13.12 percent, down sharply from 39.16 percent in October 2024. This 26.04 percentage-point drop offers relief for households whose budgets have long been squeezed by elevated food costs.
Yet, month-on-month data tells a different story. The –0.37 percent food inflation rate in October, though still negative, reflects a 1.21 percent rise from the unusually steep –1.57 percent in September. The NBS attributes this to renewed price increases in key staples such as fresh onions, fruits, shrimp, groundnuts, vegetables like ugu and okazi leaf, and protein items including goat meat and cow tail.
Geographic disparities also remain pronounced. Ogun (20.85 percent), Nasarawa (19.96 percent), and Ekiti (19.70 percent) recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation, while Akwa Ibom (3.98 percent), Katsina (4.15 percent), and Yobe (4.29 percent) posted the slowest increases.
Month-on-month pressures were most visible in Bauchi (6.77 percent), Abuja (5.11 percent), and Niger (4.84 percent), pointing to lingering supply chain constraints and regional market distortions.
Monetary Policy Shift and the Outlook Ahead
The easing of inflation appears to have emboldened the CBN, which in September cut the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27 percent, its first reduction in five years. The move signals a cautiously optimistic stance by the apex bank, reflecting confidence that inflationary pressures are now on a downward trend after years of volatility.
Economists will, however, be watching closely to see whether the month-on-month uptick becomes a persistent pattern — a risk that could complicate the CBN’s balancing act between supporting growth and keeping inflation under control. For now, the broad decline in annual inflation offers a rare bout of economic respite, even as structural weaknesses in food production, distribution, and pricing continue to pose challenges.
If the current trend holds, Nigeria could be edging toward a more stable price environment, a development with significant implications for investment, household welfare, and policy planning. But with food pressures resurfacing and regional disparities persisting, policymakers still have work to do to lock in the gains and prevent a reversal.
