Lagos may be heading toward yet another round of rice price reductions ahead of the festive season, with farmers’ associations predicting fresh declines following the state government’s decision to slash the price of Lagos rice from N64,000 to N57,000 per 50kg bag.
The optimism comes after a turbulent year in which rice prices at one point surged above N80,000 per bag, making the latest government intervention both economically and politically significant.
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Speaking at the 60th Annual Bankers’ Dinner of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria in Lagos on Friday, Sanwo-Olu had announced that the state government was slashing the price of Lagos rice to at least N58,000 per bag.
The governor described the ongoing price decline as a direct benefit to Nigerians, saying, “Real drop in the market. That is real growth, innovation and real growth in our citizens. The reduction in inflation numbers is real and positive.”
Competitive Pressure Is Already Taking Hold
EKO HOT BLOG gathered that, in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Sunday, Vice Chairman of the All Farmers Association (AFAN) Southwest, Lagos chapter, Sakin Agbayewa, described the governor’s intervention as a “good development” and said introducing Lagos rice at N57,000 puts new pressure on a market that had been drifting upward for months.
According to him, with foreign rice currently between N52,000–N56,000, competition could push prices even lower “in one or two weeks.” The contrast with the period earlier this year, when a 50kg bag sold for more than N80,000, highlights how much room the market has to adjust downward if supply remains stable.
Agbayewa emphasised that Lagos rice also competes strongly on freshness and safety.
While local rice moves from farm to shelf within about a year, he noted that imported rice may have been stored for “three to five years or even expired,” suggesting that the Lagos price point reinforces quality-based consumer choice rather than just cost comparisons.
Production Constraints Could Slow Further Drops
Despite the optimism, the Chairman of the Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria (RIFAN) Lagos chapter, Raphael Hunsa, cautioned that sustained price drops depend heavily on production levels.
He welcomed the state government’s action but warned that without expanded year-round farming, irrigation investment, and consistent input support, prices could creep back up just as they did earlier in the year when shortages helped push a bag above N80,000.
“When production is low, demand will be high, and subsequently the price will be high too,” Hunsa said, urging the government to strengthen support for farmers so that lower prices can be sustained beyond the yuletide.
Festive Season Demand May Determine How Low Prices Can Go
With Christmas approaching, Lagos has effectively established N57,000 as a new benchmark. If supply holds and competition tightens, another dip is possible in the short term. But experts agree that only structural improvements in domestic output can keep prices consistently lower than the levels seen this year.
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For now, the question is whether the combination of state intervention, festive demand dynamics, and renewed competition will pull prices further down or simply provide temporary relief after a year that saw rice costs climb past N80,000.
Philip Ibitoye is a Special Correspondent with EKO HOT BLOG. Click here to find daily analysis and critical insight on trending issues in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria.
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