Data, Not Conspiracy, Defeated Peter Obi in 2023

Data, Not Conspiracy, Defeated Peter Obi in 2023 – Lagos APC
Oladejo said the study identified significant anomaly rates in some South East states
Says maintained that popularity does not rule out the possibility of irregularities

The Lagos State chapter of the All Progressives Congress, APC, has weighed in on an independent, data driven report on the 2023 general election, arguing that its findings provide a factual explanation for what it described as the contradiction between Peter Obi’s dominance in the South East and his poor showing across much of the country.

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Eko Hot Blog reports that the party said the report clearly explains what it called one of the most striking features of the presidential election, Obi’s overwhelming victories in parts of the South East and his failure to gain traction in other regions.

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Spokesman of the Lagos APC, Mr. Seye Oladejo, said the conclusions of the report were not based on speculation but on verifiable data.

“This is not political conjecture,” Oladejo said. “It is mathematics, statistics, and electoral geography speaking plainly.”

In a statement he signed, Oladejo said the study identified significant anomaly rates in some South East states. According to the report, Anambra recorded an anomaly rate of 24.9%, meaning almost one in four polling units showed multiple fraud indicators. Enugu followed with 16.7%, while Imo recorded 10.9%.

He said the 3 states accounted for a disproportionate share of the 4,351 anomalous polling units identified nationwide, representing 3.5% of the 123,918 polling units analysed.

By contrast, Oladejo noted that Lagos State, which is the political base of the eventual winner, recorded an anomaly rate of just 2.3%, while Oyo State recorded 0.3%.

“In an election decided by margins running into hundreds of thousands of votes, clusters of perfect scores, suspiciously round percentages, and statistically improbable vote distributions are not trivial,” he said. “Of the 2,328 such cases identified, a large number were traced to Labour Party strongholds, making them electorally consequential.”

According to him, these patterns help explain why Obi appeared overwhelmingly dominant in parts of the South East while suffering rejection across the North, South West, South South, and much of the Middle Belt, regions he described as having more competitive political environments.

Oladejo maintained that popularity does not rule out the possibility of irregularities, noting that the report acknowledged Obi’s genuine appeal in the South East.

“Lagos APC does not dispute his popularity in the region,” he said. “However, hegemonic popularity creates conditions where subtle electoral manipulation can thrive, especially where opposition voices are muted, party agents are few, or scrutiny is weak.”

He added that in politically pluralistic states such as Lagos, Oyo, Kaduna, and Plateau, the presence of multiple strong parties, vigilant party agents, and active civil society groups makes such practices harder to carry out or conceal.

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Oladejo further stated that Obi secured 29.1% of the total votes cast nationwide and finished third overall, behind both the APC and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

“Outside the South East, his performance was not merely weak, it was catastrophic for anyone presented as a serious national alternative,” he said.

He stressed that the report does not undermine Nigeria’s democracy or invalidate the outcome of the 2023 election, but rather brings clarity to a debate he said has been driven largely by emotion and misinformation.

According to him, Obi was not defeated by conspiracy but by electoral arithmetic, the requirement for national spread, competitive politics, and his inability to convert regional support into broad national acceptance.

The Lagos APC said it remains open to further independent audits, stronger technological safeguards, and the prosecution of electoral offenders across all political parties.

“Democracy is best served not by mythology, but by truth,” Oladejo said. “And the numbers, once again, refuse to lie.”