Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dropped slightly to 15.91 percent in June 2026, down from 15.93 percent in May, marking the first decline in three months.
But food prices moved in the opposite direction, rising to 17.52 percent year-on-year from 16.96 percent in May, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June 2026 released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday.
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The mixed picture shows that while the overall pace of price increases is easing, the cost of putting food on the table is climbing faster. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation jumped to 3.75 percent in June, up sharply from 2.98 percent in May. Headline inflation on a month-on-month basis, by contrast, slowed to 1.66 percent from 1.75 percent.
The NBS attributed the food price surge to increases in the cost of items such as crayfish, fresh pepper, fresh tomatoes, dried green peas, yam flour, water yam, beef, banana, cassava flour, cowpea, garri, Irish potatoes and yam tuber.
Wide Gap Between States
The report revealed sharp regional differences in how food inflation is being felt across the country.
On a year-on-year basis, Kogi recorded the highest food inflation rate at 53.02 percent, followed by Niger at 43.83 percent and Benue at 40.83 percent. At the other end, Katsina recorded the slowest rise at 19.15 percent, followed by Rivers at 23.81 percent and Imo at 24.60 percent.
The month-on-month figures told a different story. Katsina, which had the slowest year-on-year rise, posted the fastest month-on-month increase in food prices at 16.83 percent, followed by Kebbi at 9.79 percent and Niger at 8.96 percent. Borno recorded the slowest month-on-month rise at 3.54 percent, while Benue and Bayelsa actually saw food prices fall, by 2.36 percent and 1.34 percent respectively.
This swing suggests that food price pressures are not settled but shifting rapidly from one state to another, likely driven by seasonal harvests, transport costs and local supply disruptions rather than a single nationwide cause.
A Modest Relief, Not a Turnaround
Year-on-year, food inflation is still far below the 25.41 percent recorded in June 2025, offering some context for the current numbers. But the month-on-month acceleration suggests the relief may be shallow. Prices are still rising faster than they were a month earlier, even if slower than they were a year earlier.
For the average Nigerian household, the NBS numbers translate into a familiar reality: the general cost of living is easing only marginally, while groceries and market items remain expensive and, in many cases, are getting pricier by the week.
Since food typically makes up the largest share of household spending for most Nigerians, especially low-income earners, a slowdown in headline inflation offers little comfort if food costs keep climbing.
Economists have repeatedly flagged food inflation as the more painful and more persistent side of Nigeria’s price crisis, since it directly affects daily survival in a way that broader price indices do not always capture. The state-level volatility seen in June also points to weak food distribution networks and logistics bottlenecks that continue to make prices unpredictable across regions, even for states producing similar staples.
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Until food supply chains stabilise and transport and storage costs come down, analysts say headline inflation figures may continue to mask the harsher reality of a nation still grappling with the daily cost of eating.
Philip Ibitoye is a Special Correspondent with EKO HOT BLOG. Click here to find daily analysis and critical insight on trending issues in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria.
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