- Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows a 7.4% year-on-year increase in petrol consumption for the first quarter of 2026 compared to 2025.
- Despite the overall quarterly rise, daily consumption plummeted from 60.2 million litres in January to just 47.3 million litres in March, signaling a major shift in consumer behavior.
- Experts link the 21.4% drop within the quarter to skyrocketing pump prices, with the Dangote Refinery reportedly raising rates to ₦1,275 per litre in March.
New data released on Friday reveals that Nigerians utilized 4.93 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in the first three months of 2026, even as the reality of a deregulated market began to bite.
Eko Hot Blog reports that while the total volume represents an increase over the 4.59 billion litres consumed in Q1 2025, a closer look at the monthly trends shows a nation rapidly cutting back on fuel usage.
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Analysis indicates that January saw the highest demand with 1.87 billion litres, but this figure dropped significantly to 1.59 billion in February and hit a low of 1.47 billion in March.
This cumulative 400 million-litre decline within three months suggests that market demand is finally responding to the steep upward trajectory of pump prices.
The sharp decline in March which fell 7.1% below the consumption levels of March 2025is particularly telling.
It coincided with the Dangote Refinery increasing its petrol prices at least five times, reaching ₦1,275 per litre.
As petrol prices now mirror international crude oil movements and domestic refining costs without the cushion of subsidies, affordability has become the primary driver of demand.
Observers note that transport operators, businesses, and households are increasingly reducing discretionary travel or seeking alternatives like Compressed Natural Gas (CNG).
The data highlights a new economic reality: in a fully deregulated market, improved supply from local refineries does not guarantee high consumption if the retail price remains out of reach for the average citizen.
With the market now subject to full market forces, consumption in the second quarter of 2026 is expected to continue tracking inflationary pressures and the exchange rate.
While supply stability has improved thanks to domestic refining, the “March inflection point” indicates that Nigerians are significantly adjusting their lifestyles to cope with the high cost of energy.
