Nigeria Sugar Industry Forecast to Grow 5.2% on Rising Industrial Demand

Nigeria Sugar Industry Forecast to Grow 5.2% on Rising Industrial Demand
‎Nigeria’s refined sugar market could reach $3.21 billion by 2035
‎in December 2025, three vessels berthed at Lagos port terminals to offload 157,985 tonnes of raw sugar valued at N108 billion

‎Nigeria’s sugar market is projected to grow by 5.2 per cent, rising from N2.7 trillion ($1.93 billion) in 2025 to about N3 trillion ($2.06 billion) in 2026, driven by strong demand from food, beverage, pharmaceutical, and confectionery industries, Eko Hot Blog reports.

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‎This projection was contained in a new forecast by research firm, Claight Corporation, which also estimates that Nigeria’s refined sugar market could reach $3.21 billion by 2035, supported by expanding industrial consumption and rising investments in sugarcane-based ethanol production.

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‎According to the firm, increasing adoption of ethanol co-production from sugarcane is opening new revenue streams for producers while supporting Nigeria’s energy security objectives.

‎Claight Corporation noted that Nigeria has emerged as sub-Saharan Africa’s largest soft drink consumer, with annual consumption exceeding 53 billion litres, while bakeries and confectionery manufacturers are expanding output to meet growing urban demand.

‎The report stated that the sugar industry is advancing on the back of supportive government policies and increased private-sector investment, with the Nigeria Sugar Master Plan (NSMP) remaining central to the sector’s transformation.

‎It added that the extension of the NSMP into its second phase, running until 2033, has set an ambitious target of producing 2 million metric tonnes of sugar locally by 2032, in line with efforts to deepen domestic production.

‎This objective aligns with the Federal Government’s Backward Integration Plan (BIP), which encourages operators to invest in local sugarcane cultivation and refining estates to reduce dependence on imports.

‎Major industry players have also outlined aggressive expansion plans. Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc has announced plans to produce 700,000 metric tonnes of refined sugar from locally grown sugarcane within the next 4 years, with a longer-term target of 1.5 million tonnes annually over a 10-year period.

‎Despite these initiatives, raw sugar imports remain significant. In December 2025, three vessels berthed at Lagos port terminals to offload 157,985 tonnes of raw sugar valued at N108 billion ($75 million) within one week.

‎Shipping data from the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) showed that 100,885 tonnes were discharged at Greenview Development Nigeria Limited (GDNL) by vessels San Antonio (50,650 tonnes) and Aruna Hulya (50,235 tonnes), while Desert Puma offloaded 57,100 tonnes at the Apapa Bulk Terminal Limited (ABTL).

Nigeria Sugar Industry Forecast to Grow 5.2% on Rising Industrial Demand

‎Trade Data Monitor (TDM) figures revealed that Nigeria imported a total of 853,373 tonnes of raw sugar between April and September 2025.

‎In September, the NPA disclosed that 108,465 tonnes were offloaded at the Lagos Port Complex, with Lotus Spring delivering 56,165 tonnes to ABTL and Iokatis GS discharging 52,300 tonnes at GDNL. Another vessel, MV Ken Wave, also berthed with 52,000 tonnes during the period.

‎Meanwhile, data from the International Sugar Organisation (ISO) indicated higher-than-expected output from Brazilian sugar mills, contradicting earlier global deficit projections and influencing international supply dynamics.

‎Import values fluctuated between February and June 2025, with deliveries valued at $88.5 million in February, $24 million in March, $85 million in April, $66.8 million in May, and $93 million in June.

‎In 2025, the Federal Government rolled out a comprehensive accelerated sugar development plan aimed at boosting sectoral investment by 9.4 per cent, from $1.84 billion in 2024 to $2.03 billion in 2025.

‎The Executive Secretary of the National Sugar Development Council (NSDC), Mr Kamar Bakrin, said the government had intensified oversight of BIP operators to address structural challenges hindering local sugar production.

‎Speaking at a tripartite meeting involving the NSDC, the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, and BIP operators in Abuja, Bakrin disclosed that performance monitoring had been strengthened beyond previous levels under the Sugar Industry Monitoring Group (SIMOG).

‎He identified key concerns raised by operators, including loopholes in free trade zone regulations, delays in equipment clearance, smuggling, and resistance from host communities.

‎Bakrin emphasised the availability of financing support, the enforcement of sanctions for underperformance, and the need for improved agronomic and factory practices, stressing that domestic sugarcane cultivation and processing remain more sustainable and economically beneficial than reliance on raw sugar imports.