Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.89 percent in the first quarter of 2026, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.
While the figure, on the surface, shows year-on-year improvement, it also signals that President Bola Tinubu’s target of 7 percent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth by 2027 remains a distant ambition.
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The Q1 figure is lower than the 4.07 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, continuing a pattern of inconsistent momentum that has defined Nigeria’s post-reform recovery.
While growth has trended upward since Tinubu took office in 2023 — the economy expanded by 3.87 percent for the full year 2025, compared to 3.38 percent in 2024 — the pace remains less than half of what the president has set as his benchmark.
Growth Is Real, But Uneven
The Q1 2026 data shows broad-based expansion across the economy’s three major sectors. Agriculture grew by 3.15 percent, a sharp recovery from the near-stagnant 0.07 percent recorded in Q1 2025.
Industry grew by 3.50 percent, up from 3.42 percent in the same period last year. Services, the largest contributor to GDP at 57.73 percent, grew by 4.31 percent.
The non-oil sector, which accounts for 96.08 percent of total real GDP, grew by 3.94 percent, driven by telecommunications, crop production, trade, cement manufacturing, financial services, real estate, and construction.
But there are warning signs beneath the headline figure.
Crude oil production fell to an average of 1.55 million barrels per day in Q1 2026, down from 1.62 million bpd in Q1 2025 and 1.58 million bpd in Q4 2025. The oil sector’s real growth rate of 2.57 percent, while an improvement on Q1 2025’s 1.87 percent, was a steep drop from the 6.79 percent recorded in Q4 2025.
Nigeria cannot afford prolonged oil sector underperformance if it is serious about chasing 7 percent. The non-oil economy, growing at under 4 percent, cannot carry that weight alone.
The Gap Between Target and Trajectory
Tinubu set the 7 percent target in August 2025 at a Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting, framing it as a moral imperative tied to poverty reduction and his $1 trillion economy ambition by 2030. It was actually an upgrade. He had entered office in 2023 with a 6 percent growth target that his reforms also failed to reach.
The quarterly trajectory tells a sobering story. Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.19 percent in Q1 2025, peaked at 4.23 percent in Q2 2025 — the strongest quarterly performance since 2021, driven largely by an oil sector surge — before easing to 3.98 percent in Q3 and recovering slightly to 4.07 percent in Q4. The Q1 2026 figure of 3.89 percent represents a slide back below 4 percent, with just six quarters left before the 2027 deadline.
The World Bank projects Nigeria’s economy will grow 3.6 percent in 2026 and 3.8 percent in 2027, which is a stepdown from the 4.4 percent 2027 projection last year. These figures imply that the institution does not expect Tinubu’s target to be met.
What Would 7 Percent Actually Require?
To reach 7 percent, Nigeria would need to more than double its current growth rate in a very short window. That would require a simultaneous surge in oil production, a sustained industrial expansion, and a services sector performing significantly above its current trajectory.
Tinubu has himself acknowledged the structural constraint: public investment stands at just 5 percent of GDP, held back by low public savings, excessive revenue agency deductions, and NNPC’s management fees under the Petroleum Industry Act.
FURTHER READING
The Q1 2026 data is not a crisis. Growth is positive, improving year-on-year, and the non-oil economy is showing genuine momentum. But momentum at 3.89 percent and ambition at 7 percent are not in the same conversation — and with the 2027 elections approaching, that gap is as much a political problem as an economic one.
Philip Ibitoye is a Special Correspondent with EKO HOT BLOG. Click here to find daily analysis and critical insight on trending issues in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria.
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