- Disruptions to fertilizer supplies and transportation networks caused by the conflict could lead to significant increases in food costs
- She added that the IMF is keeping a close watch on movements in commodity markets, inflation trends
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that it is closely tracking how the conflict in Iran is affecting global economic activity and inflation, noting that no country has yet requested emergency financial support linked to the crisis.
Speaking at a press briefing, Eko Hot Blog gathered that IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack explained that a sustained rise in energy costs could push overall inflation higher.
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She noted that if oil prices stay above $100 per barrel for an extended period, such as a year, the global inflation rate could increase by as much as two percentage points, while economic output might decline by around one percentage point, based on general estimates.
Kozack also confirmed that, despite the escalation in tensions following the U.S. and Israel’s military actions against Iran, the IMF has not received any official appeals for urgent funding assistance.
The conflict began on February 28, when U.S. and Israeli forces carried out strikes on Iran, triggering a wider regional crisis.
One major consequence has been Iran’s effective restriction of access to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply is transported.
This disruption has driven energy prices sharply upward. Brent crude, a key international benchmark, climbed to about $110 per barrel on Thursday, an increase of roughly 52 percent compared to pre-war levels.
Such price surges are expected to have ripple effects across global economies, particularly by fueling inflation.
According to Kozack, the countries most at risk are those with weaker economies, as they often lack the financial flexibility and reserves needed to cushion external shocks, especially in a climate where borrowing conditions may already be tightening.
She added that the IMF is keeping a close watch on movements in commodity markets, inflation trends, and global financial stability as the situation unfolds.
The extent of the impact, she said, will vary from country to country depending on their economic structure, particularly their reliance on energy imports.
Food prices are also a growing concern. Disruptions to fertilizer supplies and transportation networks caused by the conflict could lead to significant increases in food costs, especially if the situation persists or intensifies.
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